NFL divisional round odds How to bet Bengals-Bills

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The and will face each other for the second time in le s than three weeks when they meet in an AFC divisional round playoff game Sunday in Upstate New York.The teams played Jan. 2 when Bills safety suffered cardiac arrest while making a tackle with 5:58 remaining in the first quarter and the Bengals were leading 7-3. Hamlin was taken to a nearby hospital by ambulance and the game was canceled.Hamlin was discharged on Jan. 11 to continue his rehabilitation at home.The Bills lead the all-time series 17-15.Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bengals-Bills game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via ).RELATED: (13-4) at (14-3), 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBSPoint spread: (Bills favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Bengals cover)Moneyline:(bet $10 to win $13.60 total); (bet $10 to win $30.50 total)Total scoring Over/Under:Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst :Im very glad we got this matchup, although I do have sympathy for Bengals fans who believe this game should be at a neutral site.I was very high on the Bengals heading into the postseason and believed they were the best team in the AFC. One game should not change that; however, I am wavering a bit after their showing against the .The Bengals lost another offensive lineman and are now down three starting big boys on their line. Ive never seen an offense able to function as well without a good offensive line quite like the Bengals. However, this Bills defense will thrive off getting pre sure on . Their pa s rush isnt as good without , who was signed specifically for these games, but its good enough to get after Burrow. When Cincy's went out Sunday night, pa s defense played much better. As a matter of fact, in the second half without Williams last week, the Bengals had four offensive drives, three punts and one score.This week, Cincinnati faces a Bills defense that ranks ninth in pa sing DVOA and Pro Football Focus ranks their pa s rush sixth in the NFL. I believe the Bengals will struggle to score points in Buffalo for all these reasonsThe Bills offense is second in the NFL in scoring, and wagering against them to score might be a mistake. But the Bengals defense can shut down the Bills if is going to turn the ball over at the rate hes going. The Bills are 31st in turnovers, and in the last four games, Allen has thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball six times.The Miami Marlins Jersey Bengals defense is 12th in pa sing DVOA and seventh in pa sing coverage defense. The Bills offensive line is bottom third in the league in both run and pa s blocking. Know that this is a break-gla s offensive game for the Bills, which means more rushing attempts for Allen. More rushing attempts means a more controlled tempo and more of the clock running.It's also worth noting the weather for this game. Yes, it might snow, but impacting the game more than the snow will be the wind. Expect the wind to be whipping around the stadium.Im taking the Under in this game.PICK: Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst :It was weird seeing only run four times for 20 yards against the Dolphins last week. In the season finale against the , he kept throwing it rather than tucking and running (nine carries, 16 yards). But if you look at the most important games of the season in real nail-biters the Bills lean heavily on Allen and his 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame to carry the team. He had 10-77 in the 32-29 win over ; 10-78 in a difficult Thanksgiving game against . He rushed for 86 yards in the lo s to the Jets and had 84 yards against the . Allen was third in the NFL in interceptions, and theres a chance this confusing defense will force Allen into mistakes.The fact he took seven sacks last week is mildly alarming. Makes you wonder if he's hurt.In what should be a close game, Buffalos best offense is with the ball in Josh Allens hands, running for first downs, so give me his rushing prop to go over the number.PICK: Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert :I expected the Cincinnati offense to Miami Marlins Custom Jersey struggle some vs. Baltimore last week.I documented how the Ravens have fared vs. this Bengals offense. In the first meeting of the year, they held the Bengals to just 17 points, and the Bengals punted four straight times to start the game. Even though the Ravens rested some players in the second meeting, they held the Bengals to just four drives (out of 13) to gain over 12 yards.The bottom line was the Ravens knew the personnel of the Bengals extremely well and had already done a great job against them multiple weeks earlier in the season. As a result, I didnt expect a lot out of the Bengals' offense.I expected a closer game than most. Although the score wasnt lopsided, the Bengals exceeded expectations on their first five drives of the game.They drove 54 yards for a field goal, 60 yards for a touchdown, fumbled the ball on their third drive, ended the half with a one-play kneel down and took their first po se sion of the second half 88 yards and scored another touchdown.Zero punts, three scores on four true drives for an average of 66 yards per drive. Nothing was easy, as expected, but the Bengals were efficient. On those five drives, Cincinnati averaged +0.19 EPA/play and a 55% succe s rate. The Bengals then had their first three-and-out, tied 17-17, and after that insane fumble-return TD. The Bengals had two more offensive po se sions and went extremely conservative, leading 24-17, and ended up punting the ball back to the Ravens on both drives. Had the Bengals trailed, I imagine they would have been much more aggre sive.The Bengals' offense has played an absolutely brutal schedule of opposing defenses, particularly of late.On the season, Cincinnati has the fourth-best offense despite playing the fourth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses.Since Week 15, the Bengals have done nothing but play five straight games vs. top-10 defenses.Not that the No. 4 Bills defense offers a respite to those difficult defenses, but I do question how strong the Bills defense is given their injuries and recent schedule.Since Week 9, the Bills have played seven games vs. bottom-10 offenses and only three games vs. top-10 offenses.Their games vs. bottom-10 offense:L @ 17-20L vs. MIN 30-33W @ 24-10W vs. NYJ 20-12W @ 35-13W vs. NE 35-23W vs. 34-31 ( )They went 5-2, averaged 28 PPG and allowed 20 PPG.Their games vs. top-10 offenses?W vs. 31-23 (in Detroit) ( )W @ DET 28-25 ( )W vs. MIA 32-29 ( )All three of those games saw 53 or more points scored, with the Bills averaging 30 PPG and allowing 26 PPG.With the Bengals' injuries to the offensive line and adjustments from defenses, they have thrown short and frequently. Since Week 13, the Bengals rank 27th in percentage of pa ses to travel 10-plus yards downfield. And theyve risen to the No. 1 most pa s-heavy team in the NFL since, pa sing the ball on 68% of early downs in the first three quarters of games.That ranks 4% higher than the No. 2 team (Chargers) and well above the 53% NFL average.Over that same span, 37% of s wide receiver targets have come within two seconds of the snap, and an NFL-high 72% have come in le s than 2.5 seconds (average = 52%).While the Bills have the NFLs ninth-best pa s defense, albeit untested of late, they are terrible at defending pa ses thrown quickly to wide receivers.Look at the Bills splits on pa ses to wide receivers:Thrown after 2.9 seconds: second in EPA/att, eighth in succe s rate, seventh in YPAThrown in le s than 2.5 seconds:25th in EPA/att, 28th in succe s rate, 29th in YPAThats a ma sive shift from top-10 to bottom-10 in these metrics.And since Week 12, when was injured, its become even more of a problem.Buffalo ranks 30th in EPA/att, 29th in succe s rate, and 29th in YPA on WR pa ses thrown in le s than 2.5 seconds.Specifically, the Bills allow +0.37 EPA/att, 60% succe s and 8.2 YPA on these pa ses, while the NFL average is Andre Dawson Jersey +0.13 EPA/att, 50% succe s and 6.8 YPA.Keep in mind the Bills faced the ninth-easiest schedule of pa sing offenses during this span, facing the following quarterbacks:Skylar Thompson and x2Jacoby Bri settJared Goff and Tua TagovailoaNot only does Burrow throw these quick wide receiver pa ses more frequently than any other QB in the NFL, but he also ranks third in succe s rate and sixth in YPA when doing so.Burrow will certainly need to pa s early given the lo ses of three starters along the offensive line: , and .But as mentioned, the Bills lost pa s rusher Von Miller in Week 12. Prior to his lo s, Buffalo ranked fourth in pre sure rate while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Since his lo s, the Bills rank 24th in pre sure rate despite blitzing at the 13th-highest rate.And they rank 30th in pre sure rate since Week 15.All of these trending metrics for the Bills' defense, despite the easy schedule of offenses, bode well for the Bengals' offense.But on the other side of the ball, there are reasons for hope for the Bills' offense. has struggled tremendously vs. the blitz this year. He ranks first this season in EPA/att when not blitzed but 25th when blitzed. The good news, however, is the Bengals do not blitz very frequently.On the season, the Bengals blitz at the 21st-highest rate, and that dipped to 25th since Week 12.Allen has also improved tremendously inside the red zone. Look at Allens efficiency splits inside the red zone out of 38 quarterbacks:Weeks 1-10: 34th in EPA/att, 36th in third-down conversion rate, 13th in succe s rateSince Week 11: third in EPA/att, fourth in third-down conversion rate, second in succe s rateThis game truly comes down to whether or not the Bengals can get the ball out without Burrow getting pre sured too frequently, and it is a perfect live betting game once you see how his line is holding up.Top stories from FOX Sports:for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize.! NFL trending in this topic
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